My Own Private Predictions

Hey... Karena ntar malem (waktu USA) bakal diadain Golden Globe, and i'm very over-excited right now, jadi iseng-iseng pengin bikin prediksi sotoy siapa yg kira2 bakal ngegondol piala globe emas itu. Beberapa prediksi kritikus jg udah bisa dilihat di mana-mana kok. Gw mengambil masukan dari mereka dan mencoba "memadupadankan" dengan pilihan dan feeling gw. Sekali lagi, gw belum nonton semua film yg dinominasiin. It's just my predictions...

BEST PICTURE - DRAMA
Brokeback Mountain
The Constant Gardener
Good Night, and Good Luck
A History of Violence
Match Point
Prediction: Kayaknya yg bakal menang itu Brokeback. Buktinya film itu udah menang di mana-mana (melebihi 4 film saingannya), dan dapet nominasi terbanyak di Globe ini. Biasanya, film yg megang rekor nominasi terbanyak pasti menang best picture.

BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
Russel Crowe - Cinderella Man
Philip Seymour Hoffman - Capote
Terrence Howard - Hustle & Flow
Heath Ledger - Brokeback Mountain
David Strathairn - Good Night, and Good Luck
Prediction: antara Hoffman atau Ledger. Kritikus di USA pun ampe kebagi dalam 2 kubu. Ada yg bilang Hoffman bagus, ada yg bilang jg kalo Ledger memberikan once-in-a-lifetime performance-nya. Btw, gw pegang Hoffman.

BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
Maria Bello - A History of Violence
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Gwyneth Paltrow - Proof
Charlize Theron - North Country
Ziyi Zhang - Memoirs of A Geisha
Prediction: Kyaknya ini udah di atas kertas banget: Felicity Huffman di Transjakarta...eh, Transamerica.

BEST PICTURE - MUSICAL or COMEDY
Mrs. Henderson Presents
Pride & Prejudice
The Producers
The Squid and The Whale
Walk The Line
Prediction: Kritik banyak yg bilang kalo Prejudice bakal "dimenangin" ama HFPA. Sementara Walk The Line diwajibkan "mengalah" di ajang ini karena kemungkinan besar (sekali) film ini bakal dinominasiin di Oscar, sementara Prejudice kecil kemungkinannya bwat masuk ke Oscar. Hmmm.... But i really love Reese Witherspoon there. It's a nearly-flawless movie. I'll go with Walk The Line.

BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL or COMEDY
Pierce Brosnan - The Matador
Jeff Daniels - The Squid and The Whale
Johnny Depp - Charlie and The Chocolate Factory
Nathan Lane - The Producers
Cillian Murphy - Breakfast On Pluto
Joaquin Phoenix - Walk The Line
Prediction: Phoenix was superb. Murphy was convincing. Daniels was great. But i'll go with Phoenix.

BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL or COMEDY
Judi Dench - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Keira Knightley - Pride & Prejudice
Laura Linney - The Squid and The Whale
Sarah Jessica Parker - The Family Stone
Reese Witherspoon - Walk The Line
Prediction: ada gosip beredar yg bilang klo Parker bakal dimenangin di kategori ini. Alasan: karena Sex and The City udah abis masa tayangnya, jd sebagai "pengganti" penghargaan Best Actress untuk serial TV yg udah jd langganan Parker, dia bakal dikasih Globe bwat aktingnya di The Family Stone. Tp aktingnya nggak cukup kuat di film itu. And i think the winner in this category will be very much obvious, she's Mrs. Witherspoon.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
George Clooney - Syriana
Matt Dillon - Crash
Will Ferrell - The Producers
Paul Giamatti - Cinderella Man
Bob Hoskins - Mrs. Henderson Presents
Prediction: Clooney dipuji di mana-mana. Tp Giamatti setidaknya udah pernah menang di salah satu ajang penghargaan kritikus di kategori yg sama. I also have watched Cinderella Man. He was terrific. Gw pegang Giamatti.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Scarlett Johansson - Match Point
Shirley MacLaine - In Her Shoes
Frances McDormand - North Country
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardener
Michelle Williams - Brokeback Mountain
Prediction: Sebenernya sih gw pengen ada nama Amy Adams di kategori ini. Tp sayangnya nggak ada. Well, gw pegang antara Williams dan Weisz. Tp kalo ngomongin chance menang, kayaknya bakal didapetin sama Williams.

BEST DIRECTOR
Woody Allen - Match Point
George Clooney - Good Night, and Good Luck
Peter Jackson - King Kong
Ang Lee - Brokeback Mountain
Fernando Meirelles - The Constant Gardener
Steven Spielberg - Munich
Prediction: Berat banget. Klo dilihat dr segi kesempatan menang, Ang Lee menang jauh dibanding 5 saingannya yg lain. Tp kritikus lebih condong ke Clooney mengingat aktor yg mencoba menjadi sutradara hampir selalu diganjar penghargaan best director bwat film yg dia sutradarain dan berhasil masuk ke ajang awards2. Contohnya, Robert Redford (Ordinary People) dan Mel Gibson (Braveheart). But i think Lee has done much better movie. Brokeback itu film yg cukup kontroversial, and it takes a lot of courage to make the movie. I'll go with Ang Lee. I hope so.

Just My Guess: Best screenplay, gw berharap dimenangin ama Paul Haggis & Bobby Moresco bwat film mereka, Crash. It's a wonderful and touching movie. You should watch it.

That's it. Kita lihat aja hasilnya dalam waktu kurang dari 12 jam lagi dari skarang. And the Golden Globe goes to....